Today's track: Bruce Springsteen — Atlantic City
Photo credit: Lindsey Wild
The New York Times just ran a Zillow ranking of the 50 largest U.S. metros for first-time home buyers. Louisville came in at number 10.
Here's why that matters. Only 21% of median income here goes toward typical rent. And 54% of Louisville listings are affordable to median-income households. In a country where most major cities have priced out their own workforce, Louisville is still a place where regular people can actually buy a home.
That's not an accident. That's what happens when a market has real inventory, real wages relative to prices, and real opportunity — instead of a decade of speculation driving everything out of reach.
We're top 10 in the country. And most people still aren't paying attention.
Let me give you the numbers on the Louisville market right now, because they tell a story.
3,425 active listings. Just over two and a half months of inventory. Of those — 1,969 have been sitting for at least 30 days. That's 57% of everything on the market. Nearly 1,121 have been sitting for 60 days — about a third. Seven hundred and twenty-nine have been on the market 90 days or more. That's 21% of all active listings just... waiting.
There are currently 130 active multifamily properties in the market. 59 of them — 45% — have been sitting for 60 days or more.
Think about what 90 days feels like on a property you're trying to sell.
The 30-year mortgage rate is sitting at 6.25%. And here's something I noticed — they've started pushing the 20-year more prominently. Used to be 30-year to 15-year. Now it's 30-year to 20-year, which comes in at 5.95%. Make of that what you will, but someone's trying to make the numbers look a little friendlier.
Mortgage purchase applications dipped again. Near rock bottom. Down 34% from the same week in 2019. Inflation is heating back up, which means rate cuts aren't coming as fast as anyone hoped. Maybe not at all for a while.
All of this means one thing: there are a meaningful number of sellers in this market who need solutions. Real ones. Solutions.
I've been sending creative offers out into this market. Some of them are low on price — I'll be upfront about that. But they also tend to come with seller financing terms, fast close options, and a genuine willingness to find what actually works for the seller. That's the whole point. If there's a middle ground, we find it.
And the responses tell me everything I need to know about who I'm dealing with.
Some agents are dismissive. Obtuse. Offended, even. And I'll say this plainly — if receiving an offer in the lowest traction real estate market in years offends you, you're in the wrong industry. Your client hired you to get their property sold. An offer is an opportunity. Work it.
The good ones are curious. They send counters. They ask questions. They try to find middle ground. That's the job.
Most have been respectful — they'll say they'll loop back around if anything changes. And here's the thing: the whole market is changing. That loop-back conversation is coming whether they want it or not.
I'll ask the uncomfortable question: if an agent doesn't present one of these offers and the property ends up selling for less — what's the liability there? I genuinely don't know the legal answer. But I know the moral one.
The 1980s had a market that looked a lot like this one. High rates, low traction, motivated sellers. That's when lease options, land contracts, and seller financing became tools people actually used — not just things they read about. Short sales and foreclosures picked up too.
The agents who learned to walk into those situations with solutions built careers. The ones who waited for rates to drop missed the window.
Novations. Lease options. Land contracts. Short sales. Assignments. That's where the opportunity lives right now. Not in waiting for the market to come back. In knowing what to do while everyone else is frozen.
Someone told me once — the young bucks know the rules, the old dogs know the exceptions. Find the people who were curious enough to learn the exceptions. Work with them. Become one of them.
Double down on your knowledge. Build your skillset. Deploy it with AI-level efficiency.
Here's what the numbers say about that last part. According to a Fed survey, 66.3% of Americans earning over $200,000 used AI tools at work over the last 12 months. $100k–$200k earners: 51.6%. $50k–$100k: 40.2%. Under $50k? 15.9%.
The people at the top of the income ladder are using these tools at four times the rate of people at the bottom. That gap is not closing on its own.
68% of workers who use AI say it makes their job easier. 56.7% say it boosts their productivity. The ones who figured that out early aren't waiting around for permission.
“There are winners and losers, don't get caught on the wrong side of that line.” — Bruce
Make waves.
With Enthusiasm,
Rob Bergeron
Owner–Realtor at Award-Winning Winner Realty
Winner Realty | OffMarket.deals | Property Partner Data Company | HireMySub.com
The Morning Bergeron daily track playlist: https://music.apple.com/us/playlist/the-morning-bergeron/pl.u-pMyl2GlSW1N3qv
PS: This is my favorite lake in Kentucky — Nolin Lake, just 1 hour 15 minutes from Louisville. 5,795 acres of water, neighborhood boat ramp, minutes from Blue Holler Off-Road Park, and right next to Mammoth Cave National Park — the longest cave system on Earth and one of the most visited national parks in the country. Short-term rental demand in this corridor is real. Seller has motivation. Whether you want a weekend retreat or an income-producing property, this one checks every box.