Today’s track: Stay Awhile — Cactus Channel
Big morning for housing numbers, so let’s start there.
NAR just dropped June’s existing-home sales, and they fell 2.4% month over month. That’s 4.09 million on the seasonally adjusted annual rate — down 2.4% from May, but up 2.8% from a year ago. Inventory’s at 4.6 months. Affordability actually improved, with the index climbing to 102.3 from 95.5 a year ago.
The national median hit a record. $440,600. Think about that. Sales are falling and prices are hitting all-time highs at the same time — a market priced for perfection with no transaction volume behind it. And I’ll tell you where negotiating leverage lives: right there, in the volume droughts. When nobody’s transacting, the people who do hold all the cards.
The national median just hit $440,600. Louisville’s is $305K. Do the math on cash flow.
Which brings me home. Per GLAR data our June median peaked at $305,000. May saw 1,561 closings — up 14.6% year over year. And when I pulled FLEX this morning, 3,821 active listings — nearly double what I saw when I started in 2014. The pool keeps getting deeper.
More listings. More closings. Rising prices. That’s not a softening market — that’s a healthy, liquid one.
So here’s how I’m reading it.
The buy signal: national sales are falling while Louisville’s closings climb 14.6%. Liquidity is migrating to affordable metros — and we’re one of them. With 3,821 active listings, buyers here have the deepest selection in a decade, and the market is still appreciating about 4% annually. Buy selection, not scarcity.
The sell signal: June is the seasonal price peak — GLAR’s $305K median proves it. If you’ve been sitting on a flip or a tired rental, this is your window before the fall cooldown, with 14.6% more buyers closing than last year to sell into.
The tax and regulatory edge: 100% bonus depreciation is permanent now — Notice 2026-11 cleared up the acquisition-date rules. The Opportunity Zone cliff is 174 days out, and OZ 2.0’s rolling five-year deferral starts in January. A cost-seg study plus an OZ decision before New Year’s Eve might be the highest-ROI hour a Kentucky investor can spend with a CPA this quarter. Happy to introduce you to mine! Just reply back and I’ll rope them in! ←they don’t pay me anything!
That’s the market. Now go find your deal.
“The present moment is filled with joy and happiness. If you are attentive, you will see it.” — Thich Nhat Hanh
Ten weeks out. Just sitting here reflecting this morning.
So much has changed. So much hasn’t. It’s totally bizarre.
Honestly, I kind of saw it coming. I always had something off with my stuff — my gut, my digestion. I think I’ve only had, like, four log poops my entire life. So it wasn’t a total shock. But I feel like we handled it with grace. I addressed the issues. Did everything they told me to do. Did some research. Tried to keep a good attitude. Got the surgery. Got out of the hospital in two and a half days. The average person who has my surgery is typically in the hospital for seven days.
I was walking over 4,000 steps a few days after that. Had a 12,000-step day a few days after that. That whole part went incredible. Just got my ability to take daily walks with the dogs this weekend, we took advantage both days! We are all thrilled over here!
Putting the port in for the chemo — that was kind of crappy. The blood thinner was still in my system longer than we expected, so I had to stay at the hospital a little longer than planned. It hurt my neck. There’s still a little tension there. But it feels fine. It feels okay.
I had my first round of chemo two Mondays ago. I’ve got my next round today.
And that first round went really well. One day I woke up with kind of a hangover type of feeling. Smoked two puffs of weed and I was great. Worked for six hours.
I’ve kept a healthy appetite. I’m still walking a lot. I’m sleeping really well. And — after a lifetime of four log poops — I’m pooping well.
I know how that sounds. But think about it — those are the exact things that got fixed when we pulled that cancer out. It was seven inches in there. The size of a softball. And now my body’s functioning in a rhythm again. It just feels nice to be what “normal” is.
Because what is normal? But it feels nice that things are going the way they should. I’m sleeping longer. Deeper. More restful. I’m figuring out what works with me.
I’ve gotten infinitely closer to all my family members. A lot more friends, too. We’ve created more projects together, more opportunities. And I’ve found out we had deeper roots than I realized — connections in music, in books we’ve read, in the fundamentals we live by. How we eat. No seed oils. Things like that.
Less surface-level. More real.
And the generosity. An unbelievable amount of it. More than I ever would have expected. So many people being so kind — reaching out, making me a meal, offering to mow my lawn. Whatever it might be. And all the bird stuff, of course — people sending me all of that. A hummingbird magazine yesterday! I have a friend who has set a daily reminder to pray for me every morning at 9:00 am, how kind is that?
It’s just unbelievable. I feel very heard. Very seen. Cared for.
I get such a great response to these morning emails, too. That’s part of why I love sending them. I love writing to you.
So — I’m doing great. They say the first round is the worst round. And if that’s the worst of it? It’s not going to be a terrible six months. It never was…
Thank you all for your support. Genuinely.
I was talking to a few friends the other day, and I told them: I don’t want to miss the point here. Because it’s almost been… not terrible.
You know what I mean? I’m not having a terrible time. And I think that’s not how it goes for a lot of people. I know that. I’m very fortunate. And I have a lot of gratitude for what I have.
So that’s where I am, ten weeks out. Back to walking the dogs. Still writing to you. Still here.
Thanks again.
Thankfully,
Rob Bergeron
Owner–Realtor at Award-Winning Winner Realty
PS: If you’ve sent a meal, a text, a bird, or just read one of these quietly from your phone — thank you.
PSS: All multifamily properties on the market…sorted by highest days on market (one has been listed for 747 days!). All multifamily properties offering seller financing.
All four bedroom/two bath properties under $324,000 in our market (sorted by longest time on the market..367 days). There are 32 single family properties offering seller financing currently as well. And of course Winner Realty Options! Did someone say they were looking to get into boarding houses and the recovery space? 👀