Today's track: June Hymn — The Decemberists
There's a story out of Bernheim Forest this week about armadillos.
As things warm up, they're migrating north — pushing up from the south into Kentucky. Bernheim. The surrounding area. Apparently it's becoming a thing.
I laughed when I read it. Because about four or five years ago I had an Airbnb down at Kentucky Lake — a house we'd bought from Nick St. Nicholas, the bassist from Steppenwolf. Born to Be Wild. Magic Carpet Ride. That Steppenwolf. Great house. And the whole time we owned it, there was a family of armadillos living underneath it.
Not one. A family.
The thing about armadillos — and I did not know this until I had a family of them under my house — is that you can't pet them. You definitely can't let them bite you. Because they carry leprosy. Actual leprosy. Like, Biblical leprosy.
So there we were. A short-term rental we bought from a classic rock bassist. A family of armadillos with leprosy underneath the floorboards. Guests coming in on the weekend.
Good times.
Anyway. Things are moving north.
The National Association of Realtors had 1.6 million members in October 2022. As of April, that number is 1.4 million.
200,000 people gone. That's not a blip — that's a culling.
My first reaction when I saw that number wasn't surprise. It was: yeah, that makes sense. This happens in every cycle. When money gets easy, people flood in. When it gets hard, they leave. It's true in title companies. It's true in mortgage. Real estate is no different.
What's interesting isn't that 200,000 people left. It's why they left.
A lot of agents are still trying to operate the way they operated five years ago. Same playbook. Same habits. Different market. And it's not working — because the market changed and they didn't.
Meanwhile, there's another group of agents who are building. Using AI as a multiplier. Creating systems. Building ancillary businesses that feed their real estate practice and align with what they actually enjoy doing — so getting up in the morning isn't a drag. It's just what they do.
Short sales. Lease options. Land contracts. Assignments. Skills that were relevant in the last hard market and are relevant again now. The agents who got curious instead of frustrated — they're the ones finding their footing.
We've never been more empowered than we are right now. The tools exist. The question is whether you're picking them up.
And there may be some wind at our backs soon.
Reports are suggesting oil could start flowing through the Strait of Hormuz again as the situation with Iran shifts. If that holds, energy costs ease, inflation cools, and rates follow. I'd love to see us settle back at six percent — just under six — and stay there for a minute. That changes the psychology of the market entirely. Buyers who've been sitting on the sideline come back in. Transactions move. Inventory turns.
We're not there yet. But it's worth watching.
On the regulatory side — the NAHB just put out a study that should make every builder and buyer uncomfortable.
Regulations at the federal, state, and local level now add $131,734 to the cost of a new single-family home. That's 26.4% of the average sales price of $499,500 as of January 2026. Five years ago that number was $93,870. It's up more than 40% in five years — driven mostly by building permit fees and code changes piling up during construction.
Think about that. The regulatory burden alone on a new home is more than most people make in two years. That's not a policy debate. That's a real number pricing real people out of ownership.
The good news — Louisville is actively adopting AI to streamline processes like permitting. If the city executes on that, we could see meaningful cost relief within the next year or so. The overregulation problem isn't permanent. It's a systems problem. And systems can be fixed.
Separately, the multifamily picture stays strong on its own merits. When ownership becomes unreachable, people rent. And Louisville's renter demand isn't going anywhere.
Colliers just released their market overview and called this city exactly what I've always called it — steady. Their word was "Steady Eddie." I'll take it.
Retail vacancy at 4.8% — below national averages. Limited new construction keeping fundamentals clean. Strong demand for neighborhood centers and single-tenant net lease assets. Downtown converting obsolete office inventory into hotels instead of waiting for someone to save it. UPS Worldport, Ford, GE Appliances holding the economic backbone together.
Private capital and 1031 exchange buyers still moving. Middle-market deals still getting done.
Here's the signal I pay attention to most: out-of-state investors are choosing Louisville and Kentucky specifically for their 1031 exchanges.
Think about what that means. These are people who just sold something somewhere else — California, New York, Florida, Texas — and they had the entire country to choose from for their next move. They landed here.
They come for the cashflow. That's the pitch. But what they're finding is appreciation on top of it. They're not just parking money — they're growing it. And when sophisticated out-of-market capital keeps coming back to the same place, that's not a coincidence.
That's a verdict.
Louisville isn't chasing anyone. The fundamentals speak, the returns show up, and the investors keep coming back.
The herd thinned. Regulation got expensive. Rates got uncomfortable. Armadillos are apparently moving in.
And through all of it — Louisville kept delivering.
The agents who built systems, learned new skills, and aligned their business with something real — they're still here. Still growing. The investors who looked past the coasts and found a market that doesn't do drama — they're collecting checks and watching their equity climb.
Steady ground.
Now build something on it.
Warmly,
Rob Bergeron
Owner–Realtor at Award-Winning Winner Realty
Winner Realty | OffMarket.deals | Property Partner Data Company | HireMySub.com
The Morning Bergeron daily track playlist: https://music.apple.com/us/playlist/the-morning-bergeron/pl.u-pMyl2GlSW1N3qv
PS: What skill are you learning right now that you didn’t have two years ago? What are you building that didn’t exist before?
And if you’re an investor — I’ve got some good options right now. Just did price reductions on a few of the multifamily: https://www.flexmls.com/share/E9PzE/4-multi-list
The latest Louisville numbers, year over year:
LISTINGS
June 7–13, 2025: 549
June 7–13, 2026: 534
SOLDS
June 7–13, 2025: 361
June 7–13, 2026: 299
YEAR-TO-DATE NEW LISTINGS
2025: 10,275
2026: 12,166
YEAR-TO-DATE SOLDS
2025: 6,417
2026: 6,690
Worth flagging: look at those year-to-date listings. 10,275 a year ago, 12,166 now — nearly 1,900 more homes hitting the market. Solds only ticked up, 6,417 to 6,690. A lot more is coming on than going off.